Grooving the Nuclear Option

Dear Mr. Carlson,

The media - and especially conservative media - is grooving debate on Iraq into a rut to make it seem we have no choice but to support the surge or expand the war into Iran. Conservative media - and most of the so-called "liberal" media, as well - lament Iranian support of Shi'a insurgents, making it seem we have no choice but to strike Iran. Nobody in the conservative media - and damn few "liberals" - mention that 50% of Sunni insurgents in Iraq are Saudis. Why do you all ignore that fact? Are you owned by Aramco?

And - you all keep framing the "al Qaeda in Iraq" issue exactly as President Bush wants it framed. You really want us to believe - that if we leave Iraq - that al Qaeda will just march into Baghdad and take over, unopposed. Do you really think a bunch of Sunni sectarian bigots will be greeted as liberators in a country with a Shi'a majority? In a country with mobilized Shi'a militias? Will Hezbollah idly stand by while al Qaeda takes over? The only thing uniting the sectarian lunatics is the competition to see how many of us they can kill. With us gone, they will have only each other to immolate. That inferno should keep them busy for a long, long time.

It's a pretty shameful thing we've done - light-heartedly and light-mindedly bringing this catastrophe upon the peoples of Iraq. But the surge cannot reverse the insurgency. Counter-insurgency specialists talk of an immobilization ratio of 10-1. Irregular/Guerrilla/Insurgent forces outnumbered 10-1 by conventional forces can achieve stalemate. Defeating an insurgency - and Malaya in the 50s is the gold standard of counter-insurgency - requires at least a decade and a 30-1 advantage. Those are the numbers. Read them and sober up.